Fewer Centenarians: Declining Life Expectancy Hinders Longevity Goals

Are you destined to reach the centennial mark? The prospect seems unlikely for most individuals, with the growth in life expectancy tapering off in affluent nations, despite advancements in healthcare and living standards. This hints at a possible biological threshold dictating the upper limit of human longevity, although some experts remain optimistic about the potential for further breakthroughs.

The deceleration in life expectancy contrasts sharply with the rapid strides made in the 20^th century, where each passing decade saw an additional three years added to the average lifespan in developed regions, a phenomenon researchers refer to as “radical life extension.” From a mere 20-50 years in the mid-1800s, life expectancy soared to the 50s-70s by the 1990s.

Expectations were high in the early 21st century that newborns would routinely cross the 100-year mark, but current data indicates a less rosy reality.

Recent analysis by S. Jay Olshansky and his team from the University of Illinois in Chicago reveals a 6.5-year increase in average life expectancy at birth from the 1990s to 2019 across nine affluent nations. While the US reached 78.8 in 2019, Hong Kong boasted an impressive 85.

However, the pace of growth has slowed in most countries in the last decade compared to the previous two, with the US lagging behind due to factors like the opioid crisis. Conversely, Hong Kong stands out as the sole exception, experiencing an accelerated rate of life expectancy gains post-2010, although the exact reasons remain unclear.

Projections based on existing trends suggest that men may not surpass an average life expectancy of 84, and women 90. Additionally, only a small fraction of today’s newborns are anticipated to see their 100th birthday.

The recent plateau in advancements could be attributed to reaching the zenith of environmental and healthcare improvements in the 20th century, leading to a possible biological barrier to further age extensions. While some, like Jan Vijg, share this view, others, like Gerry McCartney from the University of Glasgow, believe that policy decisions impacting social benefits and healthcare services have been pivotal in curbing life expectancy growth in recent years. Nevertheless, Michael Rose at the University of California, Irvine, remains hopeful that with robust investment in anti-ageing research, radical life extension might be on the horizon once more, particularly in developed nations.

In spite of the present stagnation, Olshansky emphasizes the significance of the continued increase in life expectancy, urging us to cherish the gift of longevity.