The European Space Agency (ESA) announced on Tuesday that the probability of a football field-sized asteroid, capable of city-wide destruction, impacting Earth in 2032 has diminished to a mere 0.001 percent.
Just a week prior, this asteroid had established a new benchmark for the likelihood of a collision, with estimates of 3.1 percent from NASA and 2.8 percent from the ESA. Consequently, planetary defense experts have been diligently monitoring the skies.
However, as anticipated, recent observations from telescopes globally have refined the uncertainty surrounding potential impact sites, thereby significantly mitigating the chances of an actual strike.
According to the ESA, the risk has now plummeted to 0.001 percent, and the threat level on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale has been downgraded to zero, having previously registered at level three out of a possible ten last week.
This asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, was identified in December and is estimated to measure between 40 to 90 meters (130 to 300 feet) in diameter, a size still capable of wreaking havoc on a metropolitan area.
Originally predicted to potentially impact on December 22, 2032, it is now highly likely that the asteroid will simply sail past our planet.
Despite the sharply reduced risk, the ESA has confirmed that the James Webb Space Telescope will continue to observe the asteroid in the forthcoming months.
Scientists underlined that even if the asteroid were on a collision course, Earth now possesses the technological capability to mount a defense. NASA’s DART mission successfully altered the trajectory of a harmless asteroid in 2022 by colliding a spacecraft with it, marking a significant milestone in planetary defense.
Richard Moissl, head of the ESA’s planetary defense office, expressed to AFP that observing the asteroid and progressively eliminating the risk of an impact constitutes “a highly intriguing and educational endeavor.”
He commended the swift detection of the asteroid but noted that “there remains considerable scope for enhancement.” Several forthcoming telescopes, including the Vera Rubin and Flyeye, are nearing operational readiness and will enable astronomers to identify asteroids with greater efficiency. Additionally, Europe’s anticipated NEOMIR early warning initiative is expected to further bolster these efforts.
Historically, the previous significant threat from an asteroid larger than 30 meters occurred with Apophis in 2004, which had a fleeting 2.7 percent chance of colliding with Earth in 2029; this potential was later dismissed through further observations.
© Agence France-Presse
Vocabulary List:
- Asteroid /ˈæstəˌrɔɪd/ (noun): A small rocky body orbiting the sun often in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
- Impact /ˈɪmpækt/ (noun): The action of one object coming forcibly into contact with another; a collision.
- Probability /ˌprɑː.bəˈbɪl.ɪ.ti/ (noun): The likelihood or chance of something happening.
- Collision /kəˈlɪʒ.ən/ (noun): An instance of one moving object or person striking violently against another.
- Mitigating /ˈmɪt.ɪ.ɡeɪ.tɪŋ/ (verb): Making less severe serious or painful.
- Trajectory /trəˈdʒɛk.tə.ri/ (noun): The path followed by a projectile or an object moving under the action of given forces.
