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Two years ago, Leopold Aschenbrenner claimed he had a clear vision of the future. His 165-page essay became popular in Silicon Valley, and he was seen as a prophet for the rise of artificial superintelligence. However, this week, his hedge fund, Situational Awareness, faced difficulties due to falling semiconductor stocks and financial pressures from Wall Street.
At its highest point earlier this month, the fund had assets worth $45 billion. By Thursday, after selling off troubled investments like SK Hynix and CoreWeave to Citadel, the fund’s value dropped to about $10 billion. Aschenbrenner’s rise and fall have attracted attention from both investors and technology circles, making him a prominent case of the instability in the AI market.
Critics say Aschenbrenner lacked experience before starting his fund in July 2024, suggesting that he was more lucky than skilled. Reports indicate that his fund used significant leverage, with some claiming up to 400%, which raised concerns about its stability.
Many supporters praised his insights into AI, but others pointed out risks in the approach taken by Situational Awareness. A significant investment in a private company, Anthropic, was also part of the fund’s assets.
Interestingly, the drop in the fund’s value coincided with Aschenbrenner’s wedding, which is set for this weekend. He is engaged to Avital Balwit, chief of staff at Anthropic.
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superintelligence/ˌsuːpərɪnˈtɛlɪdʒəns/noun
very powerful intelligence much better than humans